Chapter 3

1. Keeney and Raiffa (1976).

2. Edwards and Barron (1994). pp. 306–325.

3. Goodwin and Wright (2009).

4. Keeney and Raiffa (1976).

5. Dyer and Sarin (1979). pp. 810–822.

6. Kirkwood and Sarin (1980). pp. 225–232.

7. Clemen (1996).

8. Edwards and Newman (1982).

9. Kirkwood (1997).

10. Kirkwood and Sarin (1980). pp. 225–232.

11. Kirkwood (1997).

12. Kirkwood and Sarin (1980). pp. 225–232.

13. Kirkwood (1997).

14. Kirkwood (1997).

15. Keeney and Raiffa (1976).

16. Clemen (1996).

17. With a specified mid-value of $50 million, the normalized mid-value is ($50M–$0M)/($250M–$0M) = 50/250 = 0.20. For a normalized mid-value of 0.20, Figure 3.6 shows that the normalized exponential constant is 0.305. Therefore, the exponential constant is 0.305 ...

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