October 2024
Beginner
228 pages
6h 47m
English
Content preview from Regression Basics, 3rd Edition
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1Introduction
On Tuesday night, November 8, 2016, most Americans went to bed assuming that Hillary Clinton would be announced as the 45th president of the United States the next morning. Many were surprised when they woke up the next day to learn that Donald Trump had won the election. Most of the polls leading up to the election had Clinton as the clear winner. Nate Silver, an American statistician and founder of the website FiveThirtyEight.com, was credited as being the least wrong predictor of the outcome by giving Trump a 28–29 percent chance of winning the election.1 In contrast, Silver was spot on when he correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states in the 2012 election. What happened? What made the 2016 ...
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