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Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects

Name: Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects
ISBN: 9780133492248

by Tom DeMarco, Timothy Lister

July 2013

Intermediate to advanced

208 pages

4h 26m

English

Addison-Wesley Professional

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About This eBook
Title Page
Copyright Page
Also Available from Dorset House Publishing
Acknowledgments
Dedication Page
Authors’ Note
VoiceWebsiteOur Title
Contents
Prologue: The Ethics of Belief
Part I: Why

1. Running Toward Risk
Flight from OpportunityWhat’s Different About Today?Charette’s Risk EscalatorIgnoring RiskNow What?
2. Risk Management Is Project Management for Adults
Risk: The Temporary DefinitionRisks and ProblemsRisk Transitions and Transition IndicatorsMitigationExample: Risk Management in a SchoolComponent Activities of Risk ManagementOnce More Over the Same GroundThe Special Challenge of Unthinkable Risk
3. Denver International Airport Reconsidered
Another Fine MessBeyond the ProcessRisk Management at DIARisk Management Practices Honored in the BreachSo, Who Blew It?
4. The Case for Risk Management
Risk Management Makes Aggressive Risk-Taking PossibleRisk Management Decriminalizes RiskRisk Management Sets Up Projects for SuccessRisk Management Bounds UncertaintyRisk Management Provides Minimum-Cost Downside ProtectionRisk Management Protects Against Invisible Transfers of ResponsibilityRisk Management Can Save Part of a Failed EffortRisk Management Maximizes Opportunity for Personal GrowthRisk Management Protects Management from Getting BlindsidedRisk Management Focuses Attention Where It Is Needed
Part II: Why Not
5. The Case Against Risk Management
1. Our stakeholders are not mature enough to face up to risk.2. The extent of uncertainty is just too much.3. Explicit windows of uncertainty excuse poor performance.4. A “manage for success” approach is better.5. The data needed to do risk management effectively is lacking.6. Risk management in isolation is dangerous.
6. The Onus of Uncertainty
“Oh, you mean that oncoming train”Variation on the ThemeFortunately, There’s a Vaccine
7. Luck
“We’ll take our chances on that one.”“I know April will be tough—that’s why I’m giving the job to you!”Shocked, Disappointed, and DismayedThe Indy 500 Analogy
Part III: How
8. Quantifying Uncertainty
Same Idea in Picture FormWhat the Risk Diagram Tells Us About Today’s Common PracticesThe Nano-Percent DateYes, a Window, but How Much of a Window?
9. Mechanics of Risk Management
Maybe We’re Not So Bad at EstimatingYesterday’s ProblemOkay, We Listed the Risks—Now What Do We Do About Them?Somebody Else’s RiskRisk ExposureA Word About ShowstoppersRisk ReserveMitigation CostsTransition Indicators and Transition Monitoring
10. Risk Management Prescription
What It Means to Do Risk ManagementN-Based SchedulingCommitments and GoalsUncertainty Trade-OffsA Note on Publication of the Risk Census
11. Back to Basics
The Hidden Meaning Behind “I Don’t Know”Uncertainty Diagrams (Risk Diagrams) AgainA Better Definition of RiskCharacteristics of Risk DiagramsAggregate and Causal RisksTwo Kinds of ModelOne More Nuance About Risk Diagrams
12. Tools and Procedures
Complex MixingThe Monte Carlo EffectSimulating the Two-Uncertainty RunThe Software Project Risk ModelA Side-Effect of Using SimulationAlternatives to RISKOLOGY
13. Core Risks of Software Projects
Risks Common to All Software ProjectsCore Risk #1: Schedule FlawCore Risk #2: Requirements InflationCore Risk #3: TurnoverCore Risk #4: Specification BreakdownCore Risk #5: Under-PerformanceCombined Effect of the Core RisksCore Risks as an Indicator of Completeness
14. A Defined Process for Risk Discovery
Naming the DisincentivesThe Defined ProcessStep 1: Catastrophe BrainstormStep 2: Scenario-BuildingStep 3: Root Cause AnalysisThe WinWin Alternative
15. Risk Management Dynamics
Risk Management from Comeuppance OnClosure MetricsBoundary Elements ClosureEVR (First Pass)
16. Incrementalism for Risk Mitigation
By Incremental Delivery, We Mean . . .Reactive Incrementalism (the Not-So-Great Approach)Proactive IncrementalismUndeliverable IncrementsThe Incremental Delivery PlanCalculation and Use of EVR (Pass Two)Incrementalism: A Summing Up
17. The Ultimate Risk Mitigation Strategy
The Joke’s On UsGutsy and Gutless ManagementWhy the Early Start Option Is Important Even If You Can’t Do It
Part IV: How Much
18. Value Quantification
What’s Different Today?The Question of AccountabilityRemedial Moment: The 45,328 Reasons We Can’t Specify Benefits PreciselyYour Company’s Biggest RisksFive Elements of Benefit Calculation
19. Value Is Uncertain, Too
Benefit? Well, That Depends . . .The Market WindowNews from the Real World
20. Sensitivity Analysis
If This Is the Solution, What Is the Problem?Incremental Value/Cost AnalysisEconomies and Diseconomies of ScaleBack to the Real World
21. Value Offsets Risk
Death-March ProjectsTake Risks Justified by Value
22. Refining the Risk Management Prescription
What It Means to Do Risk Management (Refined and Elaborated)
Part V: Whether or Not
23. Test for Risk Management
The Did We Really Do Risk Management? Test
Appendix A. The Ethics of Belief, Part 1
Appendix B. Risk Template
References
Recommended ArticlesRecommended BooksRecommended WebsitesRelated References
Index

Content preview from Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects

Prologue: The Ethics of Belief

Part I: Why

1. Running Toward Risk

2. Risk Management Is Project Management for Adults

3. Denver International Airport Reconsidered

4. The Case for Risk Management

Part II: Why Not

5. The Case Against Risk Management

6. The Onus of Uncertainty

7. Luck

Part III: How

8. Quantifying Uncertainty

9. Mechanics of Risk Management

10. Risk Management Prescription

11. Back to Basics

12. Tools and Procedures

13. Core Risks of Software Projects

14. A Defined Process for Risk Discovery

15. Risk Management Dynamics

16. Incrementalism for Risk Mitigation

17. The Ultimate Risk Mitigation Strategy

Part IV: How Much

18. Value Quantification

19. Value Is Uncertain, Too

20. Sensitivity Analysis

21. Value Offsets Risk

22. ...

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Publisher Resources

ISBN: 9780133492248

Cloud Computing

Data Engineering

Data Science

AI & ML

Programming Languages

Software Architecture

IT/Ops

Security

Design

Business

Soft Skills

Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects

by Tom DeMarco, Timothy Lister

Contents

Become an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
and much more.