April 2025
Intermediate to advanced
352 pages
9h 18m
Portuguese (Portugal, Brazil)
Content preview from Analítica de futebol com Python e R
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Capítulo 3. Regressão linear simples: Rushing Yards Over Expected
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O futebol é um desporto contextual. Pensa se um passe é completado. Depende de vários factores: O quarterback estava sob pressão (o que dificultava a conclusão)? A defesa estava à espera de um passe (o que dificultaria a conclusão)? Qual era a profundidade do passe (a percentagem de conclusão diminui com a profundidade do alvo)?
O que afasta as pessoas da análise do futebol são as conclusões que consideram carecer de uma compreensão contextual do jogo. Os "números em bruto" podem ser enganadores. Sam Bradford estabeleceu uma vez o recorde da NFL para a percentagem de conclusão numa época como membro dos Minnesota Vikings em 2016. Isto foi impressionante, uma vez que ele entrou para a equipa no início da época como parte de uma troca e teve de se aclimatar rapidamente a um novo ambiente. Embora isso fosse impressionante, não significava necessariamente que ele fosse o melhor quarterback da NFL naquele ano, ou mesmo o mais preciso. Para começar, ele teve uma média de apenas 6,6 jardas de profundidade média do alvo (aDOT) naquele ano, o que foi 37º na NFL, de acordo com a PFF. Isso deixou suas jardas por tentativa de passe em uma média relativamente baixa de 7,0, empatada apenas com a 20ª posição no futebol americano. O Capítulo 4 fornece mais contexto para esse número e mostra-te como o podes ajustar. ...
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