September 2020
Beginner to intermediate
528 pages
12h 33m
English
Content preview from Analytics Stories
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CHAPTER 22Does a Mutual Fund's Past Performance Predict Future Performance?
In many aspects of life, we hope that we can use past performance to gain insight into future performance. Sometimes past performance does not help us accurately predict future performance. For example:
- On October 19, 2019, the last place football team in the Big Ten West division (Illinois) upset undefeated Wisconsin (24-23). The oddsmakers predicted Wisconsin to win the game by 31 points.
- In November 2007, Barack Obama was given only an 8% chance of winning the 2008 presidential election (see
understandinguncertainty.org/node/222), and the rest is history. - In late 2007, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted 4.75% world economic growth in 2008 (
www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1017b). As we know, the worst recession since 1929 began in 2008. - In 2000, New England Patriot QB Tom Brady was selected 199th in the NFL draft. I don't think any of the 198 players drafted before Brady had a better career than Brady. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com's measure of career success (Career Approximate Value) (
www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/av_career.htm), nobody in NFL history had a better career! - In 1980, the prestigious consulting firm McKinsey predicted that by the year 2000, the United States would have 900,000 mobile phone subscribers (see
digital-stats.blogspot.com/2014/07/mckinsey-company-projected-that-there.html). In 2000, there were actually 109 million mobile ...
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.