CHAPTER 60Did Analytics Help the Mavericks Win the 2011 NBA Title?
During the 2000–2001 through the 2010–2011 seasons, Mark Cuban's Dallas Mavericks averaged 56 wins per season, second only to the San Antonio Spurs' 58 wins. During most of those years, my friend Jeff Sagarin (creator of the widely respected USA Today sports ratings posted at Sagarin.com) and I were privileged to provide analytic support to the Mavericks. As Mark graciously points out (see video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-pty-pty_packages&hsimp=yhs-pty_packages&hspart=pty&p=mark+cuban+jeopardy+wayne+winston+video#id=1&vid=b8a9ca147a084c09bf35f35bff383da9&action=click), Jeff and I were the first data scientists to aid an NBA team. Of course, the players and the coaches deserve the lion's share of the credit for the Mavericks' great decade and 2011 NBA title, but in this chapter, I hope to pull back the curtain and show you how our analytic work played a small role in the Mavs’ decade-long success. I'd also like to note that when Jeff and I provided similar services for the Knicks’ great GM, Glen Grunwald, the Knicks won 54 games, their most wins since 1997.
How Can You Evaluate a Basketball Player?
NBA box scores give you plenty of data on players, but not much data on a player's defensive ability. Our view was that basketball players should be evaluated based on how the score of the game moves when the player is on or off the court. As an example, legendary Celtics coach Red Auerbach noted that guard ...
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