Analytics Stories

CHAPTER 40Do NFL Teams Pass Too Much and Go for It Often Enough on Fourth Down?

If, like most of America, you follow the NFL, you have surely noticed two things:

• Teams pass a lot more than they used to. Do NFL teams pass too much?
• Your favorite team often annoys you when they punt or try a field goal on fourth down and short yardage. Is the coach smarter than you?

In this chapter, we will try to convince you that even though teams pass a lot, it's not enough. We also will try to convince you that teams do not go for it often enough on fourth down.

The Ascent of Passing

Figure 40.1 and the cell range E8:F57 of the workbook PlayMix.xlsx (with data from the great site Pro-football-reference.com) shows the fraction of plays from scrimmage that are passing plays. You can see that in the five years before 1978, an average of 44% of plays were passes. In the years 1978–1987, the fraction of passing plays averaged 52%. This is probably because in 1978, the NFL prohibited defensive backs from making contact with receivers more than 5 yards from scrimmage. From 2015 to 2019, an average of 59% of all plays were pass attempts.

Figure 40.1: Fraction of pass plays

It seems that NFL play calling has stabilized with 50% more pass attempts than rushes. Still, many analysts think NFL teams should pass more (see Josh Hermsmeyer's great post at fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-a-passing-league-the-nfl-still-doesnt-pass-enough/ ...