book

Analytics Stories

by Wayne L. Winston

September 2020

Beginner to intermediate

528 pages

12h 33m

English

Wiley

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What Happened?What Will Happen?Why Did It Happen?How Do I Make Good Things Happen?How to Read This BookReader Support for This Book
Basic Concepts in Data AnalysisWhat Is a Random Variable?Excel Calculations
The DataThe AnalysisExcel Calculations
Projecting the UndervotesWhat Happened with the Overvotes?The Butterfly Did It!Excel Calculations
How Should We Rank Upsets?Leicester Wins the 2015–2016 Premier League#16 Seed UMBC Beats #1 Seed VirginiaThe Jets Win Super Bowl IIIOther Big Upsets

The Mathematics of Ponzi SchemesMadoff's Purported StrategyThe Sharpe Ratio Proves Madoff Was a FraudBenford's Law and Madoff's FraudExcel Calculations
Is U.S. Family Income Skewed?Median Income and PoliticsCauses of Increasing U.S. Income InequalityMoney Isn't Everything: The Human Development IndexCreate Your Own Ranking of Well-BeingAre Other Countries Catching Up to the U.S.?Excel Calculations
The Gini IndexThe Palma IndexThe Atkinson IndexExcel Calculations
Examples of Relationships Between Two VariablesFinding the Best-Fitting (Least Squares) LineComputing the Beta of a StockWhat Is a Good R2?Correlation and R2 We Are Not Living in a Linear WorldExcel Calculations
Absolute Intergenerational MobilityIntergenerational ElasticityRank-Rank MobilityComparing IGE and Rank-Rank MobilityMeasuring Mobility with QuintilesThe Great Gatsby CurveExcel Calculations
How Can We Adjust for Family Income?Estimating the Least Squares LineCan We Compare Standardized Test Performance for Students in Different States?Excel Calculations
Simple Gain Score AssessmentCovariate Adjustment AssessmentLayered Assessment ModelCross-Classified Constant Growth AssessmentProblems with VAAHow Much Is a Good Teacher Worth?Excel Calculations
Simpson's Paradox and College AdmissionsThe Waiting Time ParadoxWhen Is the Average of 40 and 80 Not 60?Why Pre COVID Were There Never Empty Seats on My Flight?Excel Calculations
What Metric Defines Basketball Ability?Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)Manu, Melo, Dirk, and DwayneHow Do 25,000 Points Lead to So Few Wins?
Fielding Statistics: The First Hundred YearsRange FactorThe Fielding Bible: A Great Leap ForwardThe Next Frontier
Strokes GainedThe Myth Exposed
NFL Quarterback RatingESPN's Total Quarterback RatingExcel Calculations
Skill vs. Luck: The Key IdeaThe Results
A Stylized ExampleThe Mathematics of Gerrymandering
James Lind and Scurvy: The Birth of Evidence-Based MedicineThe Randomized Streptomycin Tuberculosis TrialExcel CalculationsHormone Replacement: Good or Bad?
Ratings CriteriaConclusionExcel Calculations
Disability-Adjusted Life YearsDetermination of Disability WeightsTo Age Weight or Discount, That Is the QuestionKey Facts About World Health
Mutual Fund BasicsMorningstar RatingsRisk-Adjusting Fund ReturnsHow Well Do Morningstar Star Ratings Predict a Fund's Future Performance?The Effect of Expense Ratio on Long-Term PerformanceExcel Calculations
How NFL Betting WorksBias and AccuracyVegas Forecasts Are UnbiasedTotals Predictions and Money Line Predictions Are UnbiasedNFL Accuracy: The Line vs. the ComputersA System Works Until It Doesn't
What Data Do We Need to Determine Attributes That Best Predict Employee Performance?Besides GMA, Not Much Affects Job PerformanceExcel Calculations
Analyzing Princeton vs. Penn StateExcel Calculations
Francis Galton and Regression to the MeanRegression to the Mean in the NFL and the NBAExcel Calculations
The Inverted Yield CurveThe Sahm Rule: Early Warning Signal for RecessionControl Charts and the Housing Price/Rent RatioExcel Calculations
What Available Data Can Be Used to Identify Pregnant Women?Problems AriseAn Example of a Pregnancy Prediction Score
User-Based Collaborative FilteringItem-Based Filtering
Posterior ProbabilitySensitivity and SpecificityROC CurveBack to the Apple Heart StudyAliveCor and KardiaBand
Hot Spots PolicingPredictive PolicingCCTVStop and FriskBroken WindowsExcel Calculations
Which Parameters Must Be Estimated?The DataThe ResultsWhich Factor Really Matters?Excel Calculations
Examples of Trade ContractsPrediction Market Trading MechanismsAccuracy of Prediction Markets and Wisdom of Crowds
Why Are 1,112 People Enough to Represent U.S. Voters?Why Doesn't a Larger Population Require a Larger Sample Size?So, What Can Go Wrong?Rating Polls
Measuring Instagram EngagementTweets Do Not Always Go Viral ImmediatelyDo the First Few Days Predict the Future of a Meme?
What Does Google Trends Tell Us?Predicting the Present with Google TrendsUsing Google Trends to Forecast GOT RatingsExcel Calculations
Correlation and Causation ReduxThe Key EvidenceCould Air Pollution Have Caused Lung Cancer?The Cigarette Companies Hit BackExcel Calculations
NBA Shooting Math 101Zach LaVine Battles the Bulls' Analytics DepartmentConclusionExcel Calculations
The Case Against BuntingBunting Against the ShiftWhy Are Intentional Walks on the Decline?
The Ascent of PassingFourth Down StrategyNew Data Partially Vindicates the CoachesTeams Should Go for Two More Often
CholeraSnow and the Broad Street PumpSnow's Randomized Controlled TrialConclusionExcel Calculations
Painter's TapeEstimating the Model ParametersExcel Calculations
Power LawsWhy Do Incomes Follow the Pareto Principle?Why Do a Few Websites Get Most of the Hits?Excel Calculations
Quasi-Experimental Design vs. Randomized Controlled TrialsWhat Drives Neighborhood Differences in Upward Mobility?How Can We Make Things Better?
Which Factors Influence the Performance of a Queueing System?Operating Characteristics of a Queueing SystemHow Does Variability Degrade the Performance of a Queueing System?Calculating the Operating Characteristics of a Queueing SystemExcel Calculations
What Is a Roundabout?History of RoundaboutsBenefits of RoundaboutsDisadvantages of RoundaboutsRoundabout CapacityRoundabouts and Revolutions
What Causes Traffic Jams?How Should We Set the Lights?Ramp Meters and EquityMeasuring the Impact of Ramp MetersThe Twin Cities Metering Holiday
Tennessee's STAR Study on K–2 Class SizeCost–Benefit AnalysisCan Predictive Analytics Increase Enrollment and Performance in Eighth-Grade Algebra I?Excel Calculations
Improving Obama's Fundraising in 2008The Mechanics of ResamplingExcel Calculations
The Basic Portfolio Optimization ModelThe Efficient FrontierDifficulties in Implementing the Markowitz ModelExcel Calculations
Growth in Hedge Funds and Hedge Fund Fee StructureShorting a StockLong/Short and Market-Neutral StrategiesConvertible ArbitrageMerger ArbitrageGlobal Macro StrategyHedge Fund PerformanceThe George Costanza PortfolioExcel Calculations
The Economic Order Quantity ModelReorder Points, Service Levels, and Safety StockExcel Calculations
Why Is the Traveling Salesperson Problem So Hard?Solving the Traveling Salesperson ProblemThe Traveling Salesperson Problem in the Real WorldExcel Calculations
Democratic Presidential AnalyticsThe GOP Strikes BackCambridge Analytica and the 2016 ElectionExcel Calculations
Arrow's Impossibility TheoremIt's Not Easy to Pick a Winner!Ranked-Choice VotingApproval VotingQuadratic VotingExcel Calculations
How Many Pennies in the Jar?The Importance of Asymmetric InformationThe Winner's Curse and Offshore Oil LeasesSports Free Agents and the Winner's CurseCan You Avoid the Winner's Curse?Excel Calculations
How Does Shazam Know What Song You Are Listening To?How Did Hit Song Science Know Norah Jones's Album Would Be a Smash?Can Artificial Intelligence Write a Good Song?
An Example of Risk ScoresProPublica Criticizes Risk ScoresSkeem and Lowenkamp and PCRAMachine Learning and Parole Decisions
The Debut of the ShiftThe Return of the ShiftEmpirical Evidence on the ShiftWhy Not Just Beat the Shift?Excel Calculations
How Can You Evaluate a Basketball Player?From Player Ratings to Lineup Ratings
The Basic IdeaWhat Asset Division Is Best?Excel Calculations

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Part IIIWhy Did It Happened?

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Publisher Resources

ISBN: 9781119646037Purchase book