Beating the Global Odds: Successful Decision-making in a Confused and Troubled World

The Problem of Being Right Too Early

Sometimes a really outstanding thinker is right too early, as legendary bond manager and PIMCO co-founder Bill Gross probably was in 2011 when he got out of U.S. Treasuries (just before they rallied massively yet again). But he may well be correct that U.S. paper is the last thing you want to be holding for the long haul. Frankly, I’d rather be right too early than too late, given a choice.

But how do you distinguish the truly farsighted expert from the mostly mediocre rest? How do you separate out the trend from the trendy? I realize some executives and politicians are so desperate for foresight that they literally consult soothsayers. Maybe you’ve heard of French clairvoyant Yaguel Didier, who has a six-month client waiting list? (She says, “Seeing the future is tiring work.”) I’m afraid there is no Geiger counter available, but here are some clues and suggestions. For starters, the most remarkable people of all combine depth with breadth, and cultivate a wide knowledge and an even wider intake. My alma mater, the University of Chicago, is only just over a century old, having been founded in one go by John D. Rockefeller, and it claims —I think accurately—to have generated the largest total number of Nobel prizes in history. Why would this be so? Well, some commentators say that the University of Chicago—set off the beaten path in a society dominated by bicoastal elites—made room for brainy oddballs and iconoclasts. The “Chicago boys” trained ...