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Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap by Paul S. Szwed

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Appendix B

Expert Elicitation Worksheet

INSTRUCTIONS:images

For each quantity below, please provide the following four estimates:

  1. What do you think the minimum value could practically be?
  2. What do you think the maximum value could practically be?
  3. Realistically, what is the most likely value?
  4. How confident are you the interval you created will capture the true value? Please enter a number between 50% and 100%.

What is the length of the U.S. coastline, including Alaska and Hawaii and all territories (in miles)?

  1. Practical Maximum: ________________ miles
  2. Practical Minimum: ________________ miles
  3. Most Likely Value: _______________ miles
  4. Confidence: ...

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