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Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap by Paul S. Szwed

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Appendix C

Numeracy Scale—General

1. Imagine that we rolled a fair, six-sided die 1,000 times. Out of 1,000 rolls, how many times do you think the die would come up even (2, 4, or 6)?

2. In the BIG BUCKS LOTTERY, the chances of winning a $10.00 prize is 1%. What is your best guess about how many people would win a $10.00 prize if 1,000 people each bought a single ticket to BIG BUCKS?

3. In the ACME PUBLISHING SWEEPSTAKES, the chance of winning a car is 1 in 1,000. What percent of tickets to the ACME PUBLISHING SWEEPSTAKES win a car?

Numeracy Scale—Extended (Adapted)

4. Which of the following numbers represents the greatest risk?a. 1 in 100b. 1 in 1,000c. 1 in 10

5. If Person A’s risk of getting a disease is 1% in 10 years, and person B’s risk ...

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