How to Think Strategically

APPENDIX A

Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA)

The phrase fog of war originated in the 19th century to characterize rapidly changing and sometimes-chaotic environments. More recently, the acronym VUCA has become popular in military and nonmilitary organizations.

I’ve found it best to present each VUCA element from the most straightforward to the least: volatility, uncertainty, ambiguity, and finally complex systems.

Volatility. In physical chemistry, gasoline changes from liquid to gas (it boils) at a lower temperature than water. Gasoline is more volatile than water. The fact that gasoline is volatile is a good thing if you want to use your automobile to drive across the country, but a bad thing if you spill gasoline in ...