Mastering pandas - Second Edition

Confidence (frequentist) versus credible (Bayesian) intervals

Let's compare what is meant by a 95 percent confidence interval (a term used by frequentists) with a 95 percent credible interval (a term used by Bayesian practitioners).

In a frequentist framework, a 95 percent confidence interval means that if you repeat your experiment an infinite number of times, generating intervals in the process, 95 percent of these intervals would contain the parameter we're trying to estimate, which is often referred to as θ. In this case, the interval is the random variable and not the parameter estimate, θ, which is fixed in the frequentist worldview.

In the case of the Bayesian credible interval, we have an interpretation that is more in line with the ...