Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers

CHAPTER SIXTEEN

Decision Making

Questions Addressed in Chapter 16

• What are the key findings of the risk report prepared by the Project Curiosity team?
• What recommendations were made by the decision gate review board?

WHEN PROBABILISTIC COST AND schedule modeling was done, the Project Curiosity probabilistic risk report was prepared by the project team and validated by a third party. It became part of the project risk report prepared as part of the package of documents for the decision gate preceding Define. All probabilistic modeling scenarios were done for two cases: uncertainty exposure as-is and uncertainty exposure anticipated for the end of Define (to-be-final investment decision [FID]).

Some of the recommendations of the decision gate review board were a surprise to many Project Curiosity stakeholders and the project team.

KEY POINTS OF THE PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS REPORT

Schedule Analysis Outcome

The results of the schedule risk analysis for the two main cases, as-is and to-be-FID, are represented by Figures 16.1 and 16.2. The as-is case is based on current uncertainty exposure by the end of Select. The to-be-FID case is thought as anticipated uncertainty exposure by the end of Define, which corresponds to FID.

The project completion date according to the proxy schedule ...