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Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers

Name: Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers
Author: Yuri Raydugin
ISBN: 9781118482438

by Yuri Raydugin

September 2013

Beginner

400 pages

10h 14m

English

Wiley

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Cover
Epigraph
Series
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Part One: Fundamental Uncertainty of a Project Outcome

Chapter One: Nature of Project Uncertainties
PHASES OF PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND PROJECT OBJECTIVESQUEST FOR PREDICTABILITY OF PROJECT OUTCOMESOURCES AND TYPES OF DEVIATIONS FROM PROJECT OBJECTIVESKEY OBJECTS OF RISK (OR UNCERTAINTY) MANAGEMENT: DO WE REALLY KNOW WHAT WE TRY TO MANAGE?UNCERTAINTY EXPOSURE CHANGERSCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Two: Main Components of a Risk Management System
RISK MANAGEMENT PLANORGANIZATIONAL FRAMEWORKRISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSRISK MANAGEMENT TOOLSCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Three: Adequacy of Methods to Assess Project Uncertainties
REVIEW OF DETERMINISTIC QUALITATIVE (SCORING) METHODSREVIEW OF DETERMINISTIC QUANTITATIVE METHODSREVIEW OF PROBABILISTIC QUALITATIVE METHODSREVIEW OF PROBABILISTIC QUANTITATIVE METHODSCONCLUSIONNOTES
Part Two: Deterministic Methods
Chapter Four: Uncertainty Identification
WHEN RISK MANAGEMENT BECOMES BORINGTHREE DIMENSIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IDENTIFICATIONRISK IDENTIFICATION WORKSHOPSSOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES AND RISK BREAKDOWN STRUCTUREBOWTIE DIAGRAMS FOR UNCERTAINTY IDENTIFICATIONTHREE-PART UNCERTAINTY NAMINGROLE OF BIAS IN UNCERTAINTY IDENTIFICATIONROOM FOR UNKNOWN UNKNOWNSCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Five: Risk Assessment and Addressing
DEVELOPING A RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIXUSING A RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX FOR ASSESSMENT AS-ISFIVE ADDRESSING STRATEGIESASSESSMENT AFTER ADDRESSINGPROJECT EXECUTION THROUGH RISK ADDRESSING (PETRA)ROLE OF BIAS IN UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Six: Response Implementation and Monitoring
MERGING RISK MANAGEMENT WITH TEAM WORK PLANSMONITOR AND APPRAISEWHEN UNCERTAINTIES SHOULD BE CLOSEDWHEN SHOULD RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTIES BE ACCEPTED?CONCLUSIONNOTE
Chapter Seven: Risk Management Governance and Organizational Context
RISK MANAGEMENT DELIVERABLES FOR DECISION GATESOWNERSHIP OF UNCERTAINTIES AND ADDRESSING ACTIONSMANAGEMENT OF SUPERCRITICAL RISKSRISK REVIEWS AND REPORTINGBIAS AND ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXTCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Eight: Risk Management Tools
THREE DIMENSIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE OF THE UNCERTAINTY REPOSITORYRISK DATABASE SOFTWARE PACKAGESDETAILED DESIGN OF A RISK REGISTER TEMPLATE IN MS EXCELCOMMERCIAL TOOLS FOR PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSESCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Nine: Risk-Based Selection of Engineering Design Options
CRITERIA FOR ENGINEERING DESIGN OPTION SELECTIONSCORING RISK METHOD FOR ENGINEERING DESIGN OPTION SELECTIONDECISION TREE FOR ENGINEERING DESIGN OPTION SELECTION (CONTROLLED OPTIONS)CONCLUSIONNOTE
Chapter Ten: Addressing Uncertainties through Procurement
SOURCES OF PROCUREMENT RISKSQUANTITATIVE BID EVALUATIONPACKAGE RISK MANAGEMENT POST-AWARDCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Eleven: Cost Escalation Modeling
OVERVIEW OF THE COST ESCALATION APPROACHEXAMPLE OF COST ESCALATION MODELINGSELECTING THE RIGHT TIME TO PURCHASECONCLUSIONNOTES
Part Three: Probabilistic Monte Carlo Methods
Chapter Twelve: Applications of Monte Carlo Methods in Project Risk Management
FEATURES, VALUE, AND POWER OF MONTE CARLO METHODSINTEGRATION OF DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT METHODSUNCERTAINTY OBJECTS INFLUENCING OUTCOME OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSESORIGIN AND NATURE OF UNCERTAINTIESROLE OF CORRELATIONS IN COST AND SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSESPROJECT COST RESERVEPROJECT SCHEDULE RESERVEANATOMY OF INPUT DISTRIBUTIONSPROBABILISTIC BRANCHINGMERGE BIAS AS AN ADDITIONAL REASON WHY PROJECTS ARE OFTEN LATEINTEGRATED COST AND SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSISINCLUDING UNKNOWN-UNKNOWN ALLOWANCE IN PROBABILISTIC MODELSCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Thirteen: Preparations for Probabilistic Analysis
TYPICAL WORKFLOWS OF PROBABILISTIC COST AND SCHEDULE ANALYSESPLANNING MONTE CARLO ANALYSISBASELINES AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROXIESWHY USING PROXIES IS THE RIGHT METHODMAPPING OF UNCERTAIN EVENTSBUILDING AND RUNNING MONTE CARLO MODELSCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Fourteen: Using Outputs of Monte Carlo Analyses in Decision Making
ANATOMY OF OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONSOVERALL PROJECT UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE LEVELS OF BASELINESPROJECT RESERVE CRITERIAUNCERTAINTY OF COST OUTCOME AND CLASSES OF BASE ESTIMATESCOST RESERVE DRAWDOWNSENSITIVITY ANALYSISUSING WHAT-IF SCENARIOS FOR ADVANCED SENSITIVITY ANALYSISARE WE READY FOR CONSTRUCTION, LOGISTICS, OR TURNAROUND WINDOWS?VALIDATING RESULTS AND CLOSING PROBABILISTIC ANALYSISCONCLUSIONNOTES
Part Four: Risk Management Case Study: Project Curiosity
Chapter Fifteen: Putting Together the Project Curiosity Case Study
SCOPE OF THE CASE STUDYPROJECT CURIOSITY BASELINESPROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ADOPTED BY PROJECT CURIOSITYOVERVIEW OF PROJECT UNCERTAINTY EXPOSURE OF PROJECT CURIOSITYTEMPLATES FOR PROBABILISTIC COST AND SCHEDULE ANALYSESBUILDING AND RUNNING PROJECT PROBABILISTIC COST AND SCHEDULE MODELSTHREE WHAT-IF SCENARIOSCONCLUSIONNOTES
Chapter Sixteen: Decision Making
KEY POINTS OF THE PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS REPORTDECISION GATE REVIEW BOARD FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONSCONCLUSIONNOTE
About the Author
Index

Content preview from Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers

PART THREE

Probabilistic Monte Carlo Methods

EVEN STANDARD PROBABILISTIC METHODS for assessing project cost and schedule reserves are relatively sophisticated. Aside from their recognized power and value they entail several unwritten but fundamental rules to follow to stay adequate and avoid getting confusing results. The purpose of Part III is to summarize all the relevant rules for developing adequate probabilistic cost and schedule models. This includes discussion of the data specifications that should be used as inputs and outputs of probabilistic analyses.

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Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management

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Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers

by Yuri Raydugin

Become an O’Reilly member and get unlimited access to this title plus top books and audiobooks from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers, thousands of courses curated by job role, 150+ live events each month,
and much more.