Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers

Foreword

I ASKED THE AUTHOR why he would want me to write a foreword to a book on risk management when this is not an area of my expertise. He replied that I was exactly the type of reader the book was aimed at—“decision makers and project team members.” He wanted the book to be a resource for both decision makers and project team members like myself. The book is written at a high level without encumbering it with much mathematics, but still has enough detail that the importance of a thorough assessment of the uncertainties in a project for the successful management of the project would be clear! This intrigued my curiosity, so I agreed to read the book. To my surprise, I found it an enjoyable read with tips on how to address issues that I might have ignored (e.g., broiler black swans) or not even realized existed (e.g., unknown unknowns). There is even some Russian humor, such as in the sidebar on “flying to the sun.” Such gems like avoiding risk in flying to the sun by only flying at night made me laugh, but I can see how similarly ridiculous risk avoidance strategies could pass muster if the right people aren’t at the table.

Although not specifically called expert opinion, the problem of anchoring or subconscious bias on the part of experts as well as hidden agendas or conscious bias is pointed out as a failure of the process to properly quantify risks (uncertainties). The hierarchy or vertical integration of risk management is particularly sensitive to this. If the error occurs ...