November 2012
Intermediate to advanced
244 pages
7h 15m
English
Content preview from Bayesian Methods in Health Economics
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34 Bayesian Methods in Health Economics
probability calculus is then derived by extending these properties, thus making
the comparison to the urn standard just a theoretical device. For example, if
we define E
c
as the complement of E, the relationship
Pr(E |D)=1−Pr(E
c
|D) (2.3)
is easy to derive by combining (2.2) with convexity.
Interestingly, the rules described above are consistent with Kolmogorov’s
approach, which is generally regarded as the reference in probability calculus
and is effectively the basis for the frequentist approach to statistical inference.
Thus, it is perfectly possible to use subjective probabilities and apply the
standard rules of ...
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