November 2012
Intermediate to advanced
244 pages
7h 15m
English
Content preview from Bayesian Methods in Health Economics
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44 Bayesian Methods in Health Economics
Deduction Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3 Induction
Δ=0% Δ=5% Δ = 10%
. −5% 0% 5% 10% 15% .
FIGURE 2.4
Deduction fixes the value of the reference hypotheses and evaluates proba-
bilistically the plausibility of the observed data; on the other hand, inductive
inference is based on the observed information (data and background knowl-
edge) to infer about unobserved hypotheses. Adapted from Goodman (1999).
Example: Inference on the probability of survival after a risky op-
eration
Consider a situation where a patient undergoes a risky surgical operation. We
assume a very simple (and even more unrealistic!) model ...
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