Bayesian Methods in Health Economics

150 Bayesian Methods in Health Economics

stored in the element BUGSoutput$DIC of each model object) to the first and

second elements of the vector d. We can use these values to compute the

minimum DIC in the variable dmin and the weights by using (3.17).

−100 −50 0 50 100 150 200

−500000 0 500000 1000000

Cost-effectiveness plane contour plot

New Chemotherapy vs Old Chemotherapy

Effectiveness differential

Cost differential

Pr(Δ

e

> 0, Δ

c

> 0) = 0.78Pr(Δ

e

≤ 0, Δ

c

> 0) = 0.19

Pr

(Δ

e

≤ 0, Δ

c

≤ 0) = rP0 (Δ

e

> 0, Δ

c

≤ 0) = 0.03

(a)

−60 −40 −20 0 20 40

0 200000 400000 600000

Cost-effectiveness plane contour plot

New Chemotherapy vs Old Chemotherapy

Effectiveness differential ...