The forecasting fallacy
Disruption and disruptive technology forecasting is a multi-billion-dollar industry. Think tanks, trend companies, agencies, research firms, data scientists and of course consultants are all vying for the attention and money of top businesses and brains. Forecasting and prediction are important; they can save companies millions of pounds and make decisions easier. The problem with the array of companies vying for the money is the multitude of approaches available – they are not all created equal and few are flexible enough for today’s challenging environments and economies. Often this lack of flexibility means the results can be skewed, unrealistic, or worse, flat out wrong. While this is partly the name of the game, ...
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