Chapter 92. Risk
“Risk” is not just a qualitative label for plans that could go wrong. It is also a formal, mathematically defined term that helps project managers and investors calculate the expected value of a decision. Risk is the product of two factors: probability and cost. Probability, of course, is the likelihood that an event will happen, and cost is the pain you’ll suffer if it does. You can think of risk generally in terms of four quadrants:
The top-left corner is where the most interesting conversations occur.
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Yes, the O-rings could lose their effectiveness in cold weather and jeopardize the vehicle, the crew, and the program. But the chances are slim, right?
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Yes, a fan disk in the #2 engine could disintegrate and sever the hydraulic lines in the top of the fuselage, which would cause loss of control of the aircraft. But what are the chances of that happening?
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Yes, our $5 million application could fail to support even twenty users in a classroom. But that would never happen, right?
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