Practical Time Series Analysis

General trend

When a time series exhibits an upward or downward movement in the long run, it is said to have a general trend. A quick way to check the presence of general trend is to plot the time series as in the following figure, which shows CO₂ concentrations in air measured during 1974 through 1987:

Figure 1.5: Time series of CO2 readings with an upward trend

However, general trend might not be evident over a short run of the series. Short run effects such as seasonal fluctuations and irregular variations cause the time series to revisit lower or higher values observed in the past and hence can temporarily obfuscate any general trend. ...