Practical Time Series Analysis

Multi-layer perceptrons

Multi-layer perceptrons (MLP) are the most basic forms of neural networks. An MLP consists of three components: an input layer, a bunch of hidden layers, and an output layer. An input layer represents a vector of regressors or input features, for example, observations from preceding p points in time [x_t-1,x_t-2, ... ,x_t-p]. The input features are fed to a hidden layer that has n neurons, each of which applies a linear transformation and a nonlinear activation to the input features. The output of a neuron is g_i = h(w_ix + b_i), where w_i and b_i are the weights and bias of the linear transformation and h is a nonlinear activation function. The nonlinear activation function enables the neural network to model complex non-linearities ...