Practical Time Series Analysis

Unexpected variations

Referring to our model that expresses a time series as a sum of four components, it is noteworthy that in spite of being able to account for the three other components, we might still be left with an irreducible error component that is random and does not exhibit systematic dependency on the time index. This fourth component reflects unexpected variations in the time series. Unexpected variations are stochastic and cannot be framed in a mathematical model for a definitive future prediction. This type of error is due to lack of information about explanatory variables that can model these variations or due to presence of a random noise.

The IPython notebook for all the code developed in this section is in the file Chapter_1_Internal_Structures.ipynb ...