
172 Pricing in General Insurance
To project each policy year (PY) to ultimate, we now simply have to multiply the number
of reported claims in PY by the relevant CLR, that is,
Ultimate(2013) = CLR(0 → Ultimate) × Reported(2013)
Ultimate(2012) = CLR(1 → Ultimate) × Reported(2012)
…
Ultimate(2005) = CLR(8 → Ultimate) × Reported(2005)
Figure 13.6 shows the results of projecting to ultimate with this method.
13.2.2 Method 2: Gross Up the Last Diagonal
In Method 2, we gross up each element of the last diagonal in the incremental triangle
of Figure 13.3 to make up for the missing number of months. In the most simple-minded
version of this method, ...