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Identifying, Measuring and
Communicating Uncertainty
In the previous chapters, we learned how to produce a stochastic model for our aggregate
losses, which encapsulates our prediction for the losses in the next policy period. On the
basis of this model, underwriters and clients may (if they trust us) take decisions on how
much premium to charge (underwriters), whether to buy a policy and how much risk to
retain (clients) and so on.
It is only fair to communicate how accurate our predictions are. A statement such as, ‘the
expected losses to this policy for the year 2012 are £1.62M’ is neither right nor wrong if you
are not also able, to some ...