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THE CRASH OF 2000–2002 AND
IMMINENT REBOUND
Experienced investors know that competitor entry in highly profitable, high-
growth industries causes above-normal profits to regress toward the mean.
Conversely, bankruptcy and exit allow the below-normal profits of depressed
industries to rise toward the mean. However, in an efficient market, current prices
incorporate all relevant evidence, including information about the mean reversion
in business profits, and stock market rates of return are expected to follow a
random walk. In fact, the distribution of annual rates of return for the stock
market closely resembles a normal distribution, or bell-shaped curve. ...