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The New Leadership Literacies by Bob Johansen

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CHAPTER 2

Moving Toward a Future That Rewards Clarity—But Punishes Certainty

LOOKING BACKWARD FROM THE FUTURE WILL SEEM unnatural for many leaders today—they are so present focused—but the tools for thinking about the future systematically are improving rapidly, and the need for looking backward from the future is growing. Young people—especially those who have grown up as gamers—will have a competitive advantage in this future. It will become possible to look even further into the future, to see deeper patterns and directions of change, and to avoid simplistic thinking.

SURPRISE: Ten-year forecasting is easier than one-year forecasting.

People often ask me: “How can you do ten-year forecasting? I can’t even forecast one year ahead!” Surprisingly, ...

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