August 2019
Beginner to intermediate
232 pages
3h 50m
Chinese
Content preview from Web容量规划之美
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15
容量规划的目标
、
问题和过程
假设你是一家超市的经理，你的任务之一就是管理收银员的时间表。你所面临的
挑战就是随时都能安排适当数量的收银员工作。安排得太少，客户就会因为排长
队而抱怨。安排得太多又会让你支付更多的薪水，其诀窍就在于找到正确的平衡点。
现在，将收银员看作服务器，客户看作客户端浏览器。很显然，一些收银员可能
比其他人做得更好，每天都可能带来不同数量的客户。这时你应该考虑到你的超
市正越来越受客户的欢迎。有经验的超市经理凭直觉就能知道这些变化的存在，
并且会尝试在既不损害客户满意度，又不为太多收银员支付薪水之间达到一个很
好的平衡。
欢迎光临网络操作超市。
快捷但不太好的数学
我们刚才提出的想法并没有新奇、创新或复杂之处。项目需一直使用这种估算方式，
网站运营领域同样如此。在这方面，来自
McKinsey
的报告如下：
注
1
但仅仅因为信息不完整、基于推测，或者明显的偏见，并不意味着它应该
被当作“垃圾”。软信息确实有价值。有时，它甚至可能是必要的，尤其
是当人们试图在更精确的输入之间“连接点”或对新兴的未来作出最好的
预测时。
由于我们是在快速变化的环境下进行判断和预测的，所以必须采取近似法，认识
到它在过程限制方面意味着什么非常重要。要知道什么时候需要细节，以及什么
时候它对预算和成本模型的预测又不是至关重要的。不必要的细节意味着浪费时
间，而缺乏适当的细节可能会带来致命的后果。
注
1
：“
Making data analytics work for you
—
instead of the other way ...
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