August 2019
Beginner to intermediate
232 pages
3h 50m
Chinese
Content preview from Web容量规划之美
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115
第4 章
趋势预测
我们假设你已经读完第
3
章的内容，并部署了一个可监测、可进行趋势分析、绘图、
和测量的系统。现在你可以使用这类数据，就好像占卜师用水晶球预测未来一样。
但是让我们停留片刻并谨记一个令人不快的细节：数据并不能准确无误地预测未
来。
预测容量需求部分靠直觉，部分靠数据。同样地对历史数据进行分片和分割，并
根据此推测未来也是一门艺术。除了系统负载中那些不常见的突发和高峰部分，
长期的视图可望成为使用量平稳增长的视图之一。将所有历史数据导入到透视图
中，你可以估算出维持网站增长所需的东西。正如我们后面将看到的那样，准确
预测的关键是具有可调节的预测方法。在云计算背景下，预测指导自动调整策略
的设计（这个设计的主题是在
6
章中详细讨论）。
116
第
4
章
（
何时
）
采购或租赁
关于购买或租赁的话题在房地产
、
汽车
、
当然还有云计算等许多领域已经进行
了五十多年的研究
（
该话题的研究内容参见本章后面的
“
延展阅读
”）。
在你
对规划大规模业务增长和安装新服务器以应对流量洪峰而感到激动之前
，
你需
要提醒自己要处理一个关键的经济因素
：
在云上或数据中心购买硬件越早
，
付
出的成本越高
。
这条规则来源于硬件成本估算的明显趋势
：
所有类型的计算机硬件都变得越来
越便宜
，
即使它们变得更快
、
更可靠
。
无论摩尔定律
（
1965
，
Gordon ...
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O’Reilly covers everything we've got, with content to help us build a world-class technology community, upgrade the capabilities and competencies of our teams, and improve overall team performance as well as their engagement.Julian F.
I wanted to learn C and C++, but it didn't click for me until I picked up an O'Reilly book. When I went on the O’Reilly platform, I was astonished to find all the books there, plus live events and sandboxes so you could play around with the technology.Addison B.
I’ve been on the O’Reilly platform for more than eight years. I use a couple of learning platforms, but I'm on O'Reilly more than anybody else. When you're there, you start learning. I'm never disappointed.Amir M.
I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.