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Goal-based Decision Making

Book Description

This work presents a goal-based model of decision making in which the relative priorities of goals drive the decision process -- a psychological alternative to traditional decision analysis. Building on the work of Schank and Abelson, the author uses goals as the basis for a model of interpersonal relations which permits decisions to incorporate personal and adopted goals in a uniform manner. The theory is modelled on the VOTE computer program which simulates Congressional roll-call voting decisions.

The VOTE program expands traditional decision making and simulation models by providing not only a choice, but also a natural language explanation, in either English or French. It simulates real members of Congress voting on real bills, and producing reasonable explanations. The program is consistent with much of the descriptive political science literature on Congressional decision making and provides an explicit model of political issues, relationships, and strategies that converge in voting behavior.

In developing the VOTE program, the author draws on his own practical experience in politics from four presidential campaigns and the White House. Given the underlying psychological basis of the program, VOTE can be extended to other decision making domains different from politics. Another use for the program is to simulate business decisions such as securities analysis, as well as mundane decision making such as choosing a college or deciding whether to get a Mohawk haircut.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title
  3. Copyright
  4. Contents
  5. List of Tables
  6. List of Figures
  7. Preface
  8. Acknowledgments
  9. 1 Goals and Decisions
    1. 1.1 Introduction
    2. 1.2 Ubiquitous Goals
    3. 1.3 Chemistry, Music, and Goals
    4. 1.4 Importance
    5. 1.5 The Process of Decision Making
    6. 1.6 Goal-Based Decision Theory
    7. 1.7 The VOTE Program
    8. 1.8 The Rest of the Book
  10. 2 Overview of the VOTE Program
    1. 2.1 What VOTE Knows
      1. 2.1.1 ISSUES and STANCES
      2. 2.1.2 GROUPS and RELATIONSHIPS
      3. 2.1.3 BILLS and MEMBERS
      4. 2.1.4 STRATEGIES
    2. 2.2 The VOTE Algorithm
    3. 2.3 VOTE in Action
    4. 2.4 What VOTE Does Not Know
  11. 3 Goals
    1. 3.1 Types of Goals
    2. 3.2 Goal-Based Decision Making
    3. 3.3 Dimensions of Goals
    4. 3.4 Dimensions of Importance
    5. 3.5 Comparing Goals
    6. 3.6 Goal Conflict
    7. 3.7 Normative Goals
  12. 4 Resources
    1. 4.1 Goals, Plans, and Resources
    2. 4.2 Inferring Goals
    3. 4.3 Types of Resources
    4. 4.4 Dimensions of Resources
    5. 4.5 Comparing Resources
    6. 4.6 Normative Resources
    7. 4.7 Goal Development and Subsumption
    8. 4.8 Cognitive Resources
    9. 4.9 Attention
    10. 4.10 Memory
    11. 4.11 Learning
    12. 4.12 Affect
    13. 4.13 Moods
    14. 4.14 Resource Recapitulation
  13. 5 Interpersonal Relations
    1. 5.1 Interpersonal Behavior
    2. 5.2 Adversarial and Secondary Relations
    3. 5.3 The Persuade Package Revisited
    4. 5.4 Attitudes and Scales
    5. 5.5 Conversation and Stories
    6. 5.6 Relationship Recapitulation
  14. 6 The VOTE Program
    1. 6.1 Roll Call Voting
    2. 6.2 Consequences: ISSUES and BILLS
    3. 6.3 Preferences: GROUPS and MEMBERS
    4. 6.4 Relations: MEMBERS and GROUPS
    5. 6.5 The VOTE Algorithm
    6. 6.6 Summary of VOTE Decision Model
  15. 7 Decision Strategies
    1. 7.1 Choices and Explanations
    2. 7.2 Popular Decision
    3. 7.3 Not Constitutional
    4. 7.4 Unimportant Bill
    5. 7.5 Inconsistent Constituency
    6. 7.6 Best for the Country
    7. 7.7 Simple Consensus
    8. 7.8 Minimize Adverse Effects
    9. 7.9 Not Good Enough
    10. 7.10 Partisan Decision
    11. 7.11 Balance the Books
    12. 7.12 Simple Majority
    13. 7.13 Non-Partisan Decision
    14. 7.14 Shifting Alliances
    15. 7.15 Normative Decision
    16. 7.16 Deeper Analysis
    17. 7.17 No Decision
    18. 7.18 Other Strategies
    19. 7.19 Strategy Statistics
    20. 7.20 Student Testing
  16. 8 Related Work
    1. 8.1 Prescriptive Models
    2. 8.2 Descriptive Models
    3. 8.3 Roll Call Voting Studies
      1. 8.3.1 Predictive Models
      2. 8.3.2 Descriptive Models
      3. 8.3.3 AI Models of Political Reasoning
    4. 8.4 Quantitative versus Qualitative Models
  17. 9 Future Work
    1. 9.1 Contributions
    2. 9.2 Extensions to the VOTE Program
    3. 9.3 Other Tasks and Domains
      1. 9.3.1 Other Decision-Making Domains
      2. 9.3.2 Planning and Resource Allocation
      3. 9.3.3 Persuasion
    4. 9.4 Goal Development
    5. 9.5 Relationship Development
    6. 9.6 Conclusion
  18. Bibliography
  19. Appendix A: Natural Language Generation
    1. A.1 Subject Selection
    2. A.2 Verb Selection
    3. A.3 Object Selection
    4. A.4 Generating Multiple Stances
    5. A.5 Decision Explanations
    6. A.6 Tailoring Explanations to an Audience
    7. A.7 Sarcasm
    8. A.8 French Generation
    9. A.9 Summary
  20. Appendix B: Inside VOTE
    1. B.1 Obtaining VOTE
    2. B.2 tdb
    3. B.3 ISSUES and Stances
    4. B.4 BILLS
    5. B.5 GROUPS
    6. B.6 MEMBERS and Relations
    7. B.7 STRATEGIES
  21. Appendix C: ISSUES
  22. Appendix D: BILLS
  23. Appendix E: GROUPS
  24. Appendix F: MEMBERS
  25. Index