R Statistics Cookbook

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Even though prophet is a very robust package, don't expect it to find extraordinary patterns in the data. Here, we are loading the beer prices for Argentina from 1994 to 2005, but will cut the data off at 2001 and will estimate our model, assuming we hadn't seen what happened after December 2001. Prophet's results look reasonable, with a variance (forecast band) that grows as we go farther into the future. The problem here, is that Argentina had a huge crisis in December 2001, which caused major economic and political upheavals. This generated a massive depreciation in its currency, which jumped around 200% over the following years. This caused the inflation rate to increase dramatically, and all prices, including beer's, ...