
MODEL BUILDING 155
candidate is an incumbent, with two strong parties, a candidate should
have about a 50- 50 chance.
Recall from above that the Democrat variable is almost significant.
If it is left in for the final regression, none of the above coefficients
changes more than a minor amount, and the Democrat variable has a
coefficient of 0.02079. That is, during the time range associated with
this data set, being a Democrat has a small (0.02079) positive impact
on the probability of winning. Of course, one of the problems with
handicapping political races using historical data is the 2002 elections,
where being a Democrat had a negative impact. ...