April 2016
Intermediate to advanced
334 pages
9h 59m
English
Content preview from Supply Chain Risk Management
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190 • Supply Chain Risk Management: An Emerging Discipline
SCRM Scenario Planning Vision
Probabilistic
Simulation
Risk
Response
Plan
Supply chain
Flow model
Base case
data
Decision
logic
Design of
Experiments
Performance
measures
Feasible
Tactical plans
No
Yes
Determine “Most
Appropriate &
Critical Scenarios”
Scenario/Risk Response Planning
Scenario Probabilities of Occurrence
High
Low
Risk Associated with Occurrence
Low
High
Take Scenarios & Build A Risk Response Plan (Perform is Last)
Scenario # 1
Perform is First
Perform is Second
Enough
Information?
Probability
Distributions
of uncertain factors
Probability of
occurrence &
magnitude of
disturbing
events
FIGURE 10.2
Scenario a
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