Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

3THE LOGIC OF UNCERTAINTY

In Chapter 2, we discussed how probabilities are an extension of the true and false values in logic and are expressed as values between 1 and 0. The power of probability is in the ability to express an infinite range of possible values between these extremes. In this chapter, we’ll discuss how the rules of logic, based on these logical operators, also apply to probability. In traditional logic, there are three important operators:

• AND
• OR
• NOT

With these three simple operators we can reason about any argument in traditional logic. For example, consider this statement: If it is raining AND I am going outside, I will need ...