Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

7BAYES’ THEOREM WITH LEGO

In the previous chapter, we covered conditional probability and arrived at a very important idea in probability, Bayes’ theorem, which states:

Notice that here we’ve made a very small change from Chapter 6, writing P(B | A)P(A) instead of P(A)P(B | A); the meaning is identical, but sometimes changing the terms around can help clarify different approaches to problems.

With Bayes’ theorem, we can reverse conditional probabilities—so when we know the probability P(B | A), we can work out P(A | B). Bayes’ theorem is foundational ...