Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

15FROM PARAMETER ESTIMATION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING: BUILDING A BAYESIAN A/B TEST

In this chapter, we’re going to build our first hypothesis test, an A/B test. Companies often use A/B tests to try out product web pages, emails, and other marketing materials to determine which will work best for customers. In this chapter, we’ll test our belief that removing an image from an email will increase the click-through rate against the belief that removing it will hurt the click-through rate.

Since we already know how to estimate a single unknown parameter, all we need to do for our test is estimate both parameters—that is, the conversion rates of each ...