Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

6CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

So far, we have dealt only with independent probabilities. Probabilities are independent when the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. For example, flipping heads on a coin doesn’t impact whether or not a die will roll a 6. Calculating probabilities that are independent is much easier than calculating probabilities that aren’t, but independent probabilities often don’t reflect real life. For example, the probability that your alarm doesn’t go off and the probability that you’re late for work are not independent. If your alarm doesn’t go off, you are far more likely to be late for work than you would ...