Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

INDEX

A

A/B test

click-through rate example (see click-through rate example)

parameter estimation with, 194

techniques, 150

usage, 149–150

absolute deviation, 103–106

absolute error, 53

absolute value, 105–106. See also variance

alternate hypotheses, 9–10, 11

AND, 21–22, 24–25

antiderivatives, 227

averaging

defining, 94

mean, compared to, 99–100

probability, relationship between, 95

snowfall estimation example

error minimization through averaging, 94–95

errors, 97, 98–99

extreme distribution, 97–98

overview, 94

simplifying, 95–97

B

Bayes, Thomas, 146

Bayesian A/B test. See A/B test

Bayesian Battlers game example, 41–43

Bayesian reasoning

data, observing, 4

falsifiability, 180–181

overview, 3–4

psychic rolling dice example

alternate hypotheses, ...