17BAYESIAN REASONING IN THE TWILIGHT ZONE
In Chapter 16, we used the Bayes factor and posterior odds to find out how many times better one hypothesis was than a competing one. But these tools of Bayesian reasoning can do even more than just compare ideas. In this chapter, we’ll use the Bayes factor and posterior odds to quantify how much evidence it should take to convince someone of a hypothesis. We’ll also see how to estimate the strength of someone else’s prior belief in a certain hypothesis. We’ll do all of this using a famous episode of the classic TV series The Twilight Zone.
Bayesian Reasoning in the Twilight Zone
One of my favorite episodes ...
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