July 2019
Beginner
256 pages
6h 59m
English

In Chapter 16, we used the Bayes factor and posterior odds to find out how many times better one hypothesis was than a competing one. But these tools of Bayesian reasoning can do even more than just compare ideas. In this chapter, we’ll use the Bayes factor and posterior odds to quantify how much evidence it should take to convince someone of a hypothesis. We’ll also see how to estimate the strength of someone else’s prior belief in a certain hypothesis. We’ll do all of this using a famous episode of the classic TV series The Twilight Zone.
One of my favorite episodes ...
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