
147A Simple Example
The next step is to assess the effect of MetaMin. According to the inu-
ence diagram, it is expected that it will affect both PFS and PPS, and,
indeed, the clinical trials showed this to be so. The modelers could have
reanalyzed the individual patient data to obtain separate equations for
MetaMin, but they decided instead to accept the published result which
was given in terms of hazard ratios (HR). For PFS, this was reported to
be 0.42, indicating a 58% reduction in the hazard of recurrence, while for
PPS, the HR was reported to be 0.73, indicating a 27% reduction in the
hazard of death following progression of the cancer ...