186 Discrete Event Simulation for Health Technology Assessment
other such statistical measure. In a model using that clinical trial result as
an input, it would be important to incorporate the parameter uncertainty,
generally based on the reported 95% condence interval. In some cases, the
input value may be known to be uncertain, but there may not be sufcient
empirical data to quantify that uncertainty adequately. This poses a quan-
dary for the analyst as ignoring variability in this parameter estimate is tan-
tamount to assuming it is known with certainty. Applying an arbitrary range
(e.g., ±50%)—although often done—is not an appropriate way to address
this uncertainty, but such analyses can be useful to determine if the model
outputs are ...