Doing Bayesian Data Analysis

Chapter 5

Inferring a Binomial Proportion via Exact Mathematical Analysis

Contents

5.1 The Likelihood Function: Bernoulli Distribution

5.2 A Description of Beliefs: The Beta Distribution

5.2.1 Specifying a Beta Prior

5.2.2 The Posterior Beta

5.3 Three Inferential Goals

5.3.1 Estimating the Binomial Proportion

5.3.2 Predicting Data

5.3.3 Model Comparison

5.4 Summary: How to Do Bayesian Inference

5.5 R Code

5.5.1 R Code for Figure 5.2

5.6 Exercises

I built up my courage to ask her to dance

By drinking too much before taking the chance.

I fell on my butt when she said see ya later;

Less priors might make my posterior beta.

This part of the book addresses a simple scenario: estimating the underlying probability that a coin comes up heads. The methods ...