5.1 The Likelihood Function: Bernoulli Distribution
5.2 A Description of Beliefs: The Beta Distribution
5.2.1 Specifying a Beta Prior
5.2.2 The Posterior Beta
5.3 Three Inferential Goals
5.3.1 Estimating the Binomial Proportion
5.3.2 Predicting Data
5.3.3 Model Comparison
5.4 Summary: How to Do Bayesian Inference
5.5 R Code
5.5.1 R Code for Figure 5.2
I built up my courage to ask her to dance
By drinking too much before taking the chance.
I fell on my butt when she said see ya later;
Less priors might make my posterior beta.
This part of the book addresses a simple scenario: estimating the underlying probability that a coin comes up heads. The methods ...