Rules of Thinking, The

RULE 91

Consider the odds

Generally speaking, we’re rubbish at calculating risk. Which is a shame, considering how useful it is to know the risk when we’re assessing options and making decisions. For example, if you’re afraid of flying, you’ll think your flight is more likely to crash than the seasoned and relaxed flyer sitting next to you thinks. You can’t both be right. What’s more, you’ll think the flight you’re on is much more likely to crash than you would have done if you were still safely on the ground. I say ‘safely’, but statistically you could be much less safe on the ground – if you were driving, or crossing a road, or playing rugby. You won’t take that into account though.

We’re all the same, and to some extent it goes with being ...