CHAPTER 4

EVOLUTION

WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT Image

  • Why uncertainties are tricky
  • Generating a list of potential uncertainties
  • Modelling how uncertainties might evolve
  • Prioritising uncertainties
  • Summarising

Strategies have to work in the future – not the past. They have to be chosen not just on the basis of the current situation, but on how that situation might evolve, even if the future is highly uncertain and unpredictable. This poses a significant problem for strategic decision makers: they must make major choices without knowing how they will play out. This chapter explains how to think about uncertainty in a systematic way by understanding its roots ...

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