Chapter 94. Don’t Ask Users to Predict the Future
Ingrid Cruz
When conducting user research, the goal is to identify our most pressing questions and find the shortest path to reliable answers. As such, it can be tempting to ask users direct and hypothetical questions—like how they think they might behave in a made-up scenario. When we do this, we ask the user to predict what they might do in the future. This may seem convenient, but it’s problematic because any number of unforeseeable circumstances or external factors could influence what they would actually do. Most people tend to recall fairly accurately what they did in the past, but when we ask them about what they might do in the future—even if they predict those things with a high level of confidence—they’re usually wildly inaccurate.
Hypothetical Scenarios Produce Unreliable Feedback
For example, if I ask you what you will eat for breakfast tomorrow, you will probably give me the best-case scenario. You might tell me that you will wake up early and make a hearty, organic, well-balanced breakfast. You will eat in peace as you contemplate the day and probably simultaneously meditate and do your morning workout.
Reality might look very different. Maybe you realize you’re not in the mood for a healthy breakfast, and instead you grab a day-old donut on your way out the door and wash it down with a venti-quad-eight-pump-vanilla-latte ...
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