From Incremental to Exponential

TWO

The Unexpected Consequences of Advancing Technologies

CHAPTER SUMMARY: After touching on our understanding of the broad influences on technology adoption, this chapter discusses how primary (first-order) disruptions usually lead to second-order disruptions, including new business models and new means by which businesses, governments, and nonprofits can interact with customers. The chapter also offers a glimpse into the “Hall of Toast” through a series of case studies and analyses documenting how once high-flying companies have gone astray when faced with disruptive technological shifts.

In 1995, the American research, advisory, and I.T. firm Gartner created a concept it called the Hype Cycle (Figure 2.1).¹ Broadly adopted and embraced since ...