Introduction to Intelligence Studies112
To the Japanese, the attack made sense. In the rst place, they wanted to
damage the American Navy so they would be able to attack the Dutch East
Indies and Malaya without U.S. interference. As well, they hoped to severely
damage American morale, so much so that the United States would think
long and hard about attacking Japan; in this, the Japanese decision-makers
may have engaged in their own sort of mirror imaging by underestimating
American anger and resolve.
Over the years, researchers have identied many biases in which people
routinely engage. Because of the sheer number, we will only discuss the ones
that have the greatest eect on analysis.
One of the most important biases is fundamental attrib ...