Introduction to Intelligence Studies

Introduction to Intelligence Studies112

To the Japanese, the attack made sense. In the rst place, they wanted to

damage the American Navy so they would be able to attack the Dutch East

Indies and Malaya without U.S. interference. As well, they hoped to severely

damage American morale, so much so that the United States would think

long and hard about attacking Japan; in this, the Japanese decision-makers

may have engaged in their own sort of mirror imaging by underestimating

American anger and resolve.

Over the years, researchers have identied many biases in which people

routinely engage. Because of the sheer number, we will only discuss the ones

that have the greatest eect on analysis.

One of the most important biases is fundamental attrib ...