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one of the earlier books in the series. As readers can see, the process used
to construct these two scenarios diers from the one described above; in
particular, more than two driving forces were considered. Regardless, the
“spirit” of scenario building—storytelling—remains intact.
The Emperor’s Clothes Are Fair
Game: Contrarian Methods
As Chapter 5 (“Barriers to Analysis”) made clear, one of the biggest problems
in analysis is breaking down false consensus. Whether it takes the form of
groupthink or a boss who does not appreciate receiving bad news, dissent
is oen suppressed. is has led in the past to risk-averse assessments and a
tendency to reject all but the narrowest possibilities.
To help remedy ...