November 2024
Intermediate to advanced
338 pages
7h 57m
French
Content preview from Pense à Bayes, 2e édition
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Chapitre 5. Estimation des effectifs
Cet ouvrage a été traduit à l'aide de l'IA. Tes réactions et tes commentaires sont les bienvenus : translation-feedback@oreilly.com
Dans le chapitre précédent, nous avons résolu des problèmes qui impliquent l'estimation de proportions. Dans le problème de l'euro, nous avons estimé la probabilité qu'une pièce tombe sur pile, et dans les exercices, tu as estimé la moyenne au bâton, la fraction de personnes qui trichent sur leurs impôts, et la probabilité d'abattre un extraterrestre envahisseur.
Il est évident que certains de ces problèmes sont plus réalistes que d'autres, et que certains sont plus utiles que d'autres.
Dans ce chapitre, nous allons travailler sur des problèmes liés au comptage, ou à l'estimation de la taille d'une population. Encore une fois, certains exemples te sembleront ridicules, mais d'autres, comme le problème des chars allemands, ont des applications réelles, parfois dans des situations de vie ou de mort.
Le problème du train
J'ai trouvé le problème du train dans l'ouvrage de Frederick Mosteller intitulé Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability with Solutions :
Un chemin de fer numérote ses locomotives dans l'ordre 1..N. Un jour, tu vois une locomotive portant le numéro 60. Estime le nombre de locomotives que possède le chemin de fer.
Sur la base de cette observation, nous savons que le chemin de fer possède 60 locomotives ou plus. Mais combien y en a-t-il de plus ? Pour appliquer le raisonnement bayésien, nous pouvons ...
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I'm always learning. So when I got on to O'Reilly, I was like a kid in a candy store. There are playlists. There are answers. There's on-demand training. It's worth its weight in gold, in terms of what it allows me to do.